Key Forecast Themes for 2024

Overall, the 2024 forecast calls for continued – albeit slowing – economic growth. Still, the improvement in demand throughout 2023 will likely carry forward into 2024 even with moderating economic growth. Demand should be boosted by strong wage growth and a prolonged renter lifecycle (i.e., less attrition to single family housing due to limited available inventory) among other factors. Supply will make the main deterrence for market-level rent growth and even rent growth at the national level. From that perspective, expect a close one-to-one relationship, where higher supply = weaker rent growth and lower supply = stronger rent growth. In lieu of rent growth, the things that will likely fuel much of the 2024 outlook will be focus on occupancy through means of modest new lease rent growth and increased emphasis on retention.

It’s difficult – if not altogether impossible – to point towards any larger influence in the coming 12 months than supply. Supply’s relationship on rent growth has been well-documented throughout 2023, and the impact of supply on rent growth is a clearly defined trend.

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